{"id":908,"date":"2012-11-14T13:10:25","date_gmt":"2012-11-14T20:10:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/?p=908"},"modified":"2012-11-14T13:10:27","modified_gmt":"2012-11-14T20:10:27","slug":"epistemic-closure-is-a-human-condition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/2012\/11\/14\/epistemic-closure-is-a-human-condition\/","title":{"rendered":"Epistemic closure is a human condition"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"nixon\"by\u00a0<\/span>tonynetone<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

\u2018Epistemic Closure?\u2019 Those Are Fighting Words for Conservatives\u00a0<\/a>
[Via – NYTimes.com<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

It is hard to believe that a phrase as dry as \u201cepistemic closure\u201d could get anyone excited, but the term has sparked a heated argument among conservatives in recent weeks about their movement\u2019s intellectual health.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

[More<\/a>]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Epistemic closure is a human problem. As Feynman said, “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself\u2013and you are the easiest person to fool.” Forty years ago it was the liberals who suffered most from epistemic closure.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Just one example. Ted Kennedy wanted to have a single payer healthcare system using taxes to pay for it.<\/a> Essentially Medicare for everyone. NIxon actually proposed a different solution \u2013 a market-based insurance plan requiring employers to buy health insurance for all their employees and provide subsidies for those who needed it. (Sound familiar? Obama actually hired NIxon’s health advisor to help him craft his plan).<\/em><\/p>\n

Kennedy walked away from Nixon’s deal, living in a Cargo Cult World sure that he could get a better one after the next election. The same one that allowed him to think he could primary a sitting President. He was brutally wrong, watching for almost 40 years and dying before Nixon’s own ideas became a reality.<\/em><\/p>\n

Conservatives have been discussing epistemic closure for two years \u00a0along with its impact on the GOP. Some were worried about the hermetically-sealed bubble that was forming around the Republican party.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

That bubble resulted in their canddidate for President being ‘shellshocked<\/a>”\u00a0that he lost. His own numbers guys were feeding him the information everyone wanted to see, not the information that matched reality. They listened to each other’s anecdotes<\/a> rather than gathering accurate data. They developed software that they were so sure would be wonderful that they never actually stress-tested it until election day<\/a>, when it failed spectacularly.\u00a0<\/em>He had supporters wo wrote that the data<\/a>\u00a0‘nerds’ were wrong because lots of people had Romney yard signs.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

They had completely fooled themselves.<\/em><\/p>\n

Efforts from two years ago to prevent such a bubble failed.\u00a0<\/em>This is not surprising. One of the hallmarks of epistemic closure is an almost impenetrable barrier \u00a0with true believers held inside and any apostates thrown outside. It becomes filled with all those who refuse all efforts to pierce the bubble.<\/em><\/p>\n

It happens all the time with human beings and their social communities. People feel more comfortable around others who think like they do. Without positive support for alternative views, almost any community eventually becomes filled with monotonic views, supporting a Cargo Cult World which repels any conflicting information.<\/em><\/p>\n

Since these Cargo Cult Worlds are only distorted reflections of reality, eventually they come crashing down, like some sort of funhouse mirror.<\/em><\/p>\n

As I wrote around the same time this article came out, when the narrative is more important than facts, we get a Cargo Cult World.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

The initial response of the liberals to the failure of \u00a0their ideas in the 70s was to retreat further into their own Cargo Cult Worlds. They failed to recognize the changing circumstances around them until the election of Reagan \u00a0hit them between the eyes like a two-by-four.,rendering their world view mostly irrelevant for over a generation, reducing them to a minority party. Even though Clinton was elected to two terms, in neither of them did he get a majority of Americans to vote for him.<\/em><\/p>\n

Most of America did not like or endorse the ‘reality’ the Democrats inhabited.<\/em><\/p>\n

It took a long time for most of the liberals to break out of the Cargo Cult Worlds they had created, to alter their views and listen more closely to the views of others. It was not perfect. Nothing human ever is. But something very unusual has just happened.<\/em><\/p>\n

We all know that the Democrats \u2013 the original party of the Dixiecrats and Southern Segregation \u2013 put up an African-American as their candidate and that the US elected him twice. <\/em><\/p>\n

Amazingly only 2 of the last 10 Presidents of either party have been elected to a second term after receiving the majority of the popular votes both times. One was Reagan and the other is Obama. The other 8 either failed to get re-elected or failed to win over 50% of the popular vote twice. This suggests something important has happened with the ability of the Democrats to connect with most Americans.<\/em><\/p>\n

They finally accomplished something quite rare for them \u2013 getting most of America to vote for their Presidential candidate.<\/em><\/p>\n

But even more amazing is that Obama becomes only the second<\/strong> Democrat since Andrew Jackson \u2013 the first President from the Democratic party \u2013 to get the majority of the votes in two elections. FDR was the other one.<\/em><\/p>\n

Only two times in 180 years have Democrats succeeded in getting a majority of America to support their Presidential candidate twice. It is usually Republicans who accomplish this.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

For the first time in almost anybody’s memory, the Democrats have gotten most of America to elect their President candidate twice. That is, in my opinion, actually more amazing than the fact he is a minority. It suggests that for the first time iin a very long time they have moved outside their Cargo Cult Worlds \u00a0enough to embrace most of America, to actually listen to others.<\/em><\/p>\n

To actually take the health insurance plan first proposed by a Republican, modify it with other ideas from other conservatives, and get it passed. Forty years after their Cargo Cult Worlds prevented them from doing it the first time.<\/em><\/p>\n

Epistemic closure is a failing of the recent GOP and, just as the liberals did 40 years ago, they have two choices. Retreat further into their Cargo Cult Worlds, pulling epistemic closure tighter around them or create new paths that break up the lure of epistemic closure, reconnecting again with a majority of America.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n

I’m really hoping it does not take 40 years, that they break through the walls surrounding them. Because we have too many really hard problems to solve and we need their best ideas right now. It will take all our efforts, not just the ones represented by one party.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n

And because, it they retreat more, it simply allows the liberals to start creating new Cargo Cult Worlds \u2013 it is what humans do \u2013 allowing them to eventually ignore facts, one that will eventually fail to connect with reality and we begin the cycle again.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n


<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by\u00a0tonynetone \u2018Epistemic Closure?\u2019 Those Are Fighting Words for Conservatives\u00a0[Via – NYTimes.com\u00a0] It is hard to believe that a phrase as dry as \u201cepistemic closure\u201d could get anyone excited, but the term has sparked a heated argument among conservatives in recent weeks about their movement\u2019s intellectual health. [More] Epistemic closure is a human problem. As Feynman … Continue reading Epistemic closure is a human condition<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pe2yp-eE","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1033,"url":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/2014\/04\/01\/truth-invites-trust-lying-invites-apprehension\/","url_meta":{"origin":908,"position":0},"title":"Truth invites trust. Lying invites apprehension.","date":"April 1, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Complete Honesty is the Access to Ultimate Power[Via Rands in Repose] Rebekah Campbell via the New York Times: A study by the University of Massachusetts found that 60 percent of adults could not have a 10-minute conversation without lying at least once. The same study found that 40 percent\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Cargo Cult Worlds"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/farm9.staticflickr.com\/8099\/8547476618_bdfb4f299f_m.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":941,"url":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/2013\/07\/15\/consider-the-facts-is-a-go\/","url_meta":{"origin":908,"position":1},"title":"\"Consider the Facts\" is a go.","date":"July 15, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"My RocketHub crowdfunding research project is now up and going. I plan on making some changes around this website as it moves forward.","rel":"","context":"In "21st Century Company"","img":{"alt_text":"How the asteroid saved mankind","src":"https:\/\/amanwithaphd.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/07\/how-the-asteroid-saved-mankind2.jpg?w=350&h=200&crop=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1028,"url":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/2013\/12\/05\/testing\/","url_meta":{"origin":908,"position":2},"title":"testing","date":"December 5, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"This is a test. The website was hacked, most likely due to the old theme I was using. I' was looking to change it early next year anyway. Now I just have to accelerate it a bit. So I've put in a transitional theme until then. Not pretty but it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Cargo Cult Worlds"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":943,"url":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/2013\/07\/17\/our-crowdgrant-project-is-number-1-14-of-the-way-there-will-an-asteroid-save-us-all\/","url_meta":{"origin":908,"position":3},"title":"Our #crowdgrant project is number 1. 14% of the way there. Will an asteroid save us all?","date":"July 17, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"[iframe src=\"http:\/\/www.rockethub.com\/projects\/28741-consider-the-facts-moving-people-to-deliberative-thinking\/widgets\/panel\" allowtransparency=\"true\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"288\" height=\"416] I have been juggling a lot since the launch. Keeping all the social media on board can be tricky, especially since this project is an experiment. Historically\u00a0using stories\u2014ones that engage rapid, rules of thumb thinking first and create a\u00a0counterintuitive\u00a0reaction\u2014has been a way to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Cargo Cult Worlds"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":932,"url":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/2013\/06\/04\/big-data-is-still-just-data\/","url_meta":{"origin":908,"position":4},"title":"Big data is still just data","date":"June 4, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0by\u00a0BBVAtech Big data vs. big reality[Via O'Reilly Radar] This post originally appeared on Cumulus Partners. It\u2019s republished with permission. Quentin Hardy\u2019s recent post in the Bits blog of The New York Times touched on the gap between representation and reality that is a core element of practically every human enterprise.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Cargo Cult Worlds"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":899,"url":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/2012\/08\/04\/tracking-violence-to-track-historical-cycles\/","url_meta":{"origin":908,"position":5},"title":"Tracking violence to track historical cycles","date":"August 4, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by\u00a0NZ Defence Force Can \u201ccliodynamics\u201d help historians predict future unrest? [Social Science][Via io9] Unlike physicists and chemists, historians have been unable to formulate grand equations or immutable laws. The trends of history, it would seem, are outside the scope of reproducible science. But a new discipline called \"cliodynamics\" is looking\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Cargo Cult Worlds"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/908"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=908"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/908\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":909,"href":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/908\/revisions\/909"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=908"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=908"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.spreadingscience.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=908"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}